Assumptions & Methodology

The Short Version

• The calculator and Bitcoin Super app share one scenario model.
• Smooth CAGR does not model volatility.
• The outputs are scenarios, not forecasts.
• Contributions and minimum pension drawdowns are modelled when entered; tax, fees and custody risks are not.
• All assumptions should be tested, not accepted.

Default Assumptions

These are the preset growth rates used in the Scenario Calculator and referenced across BitcoinSuper examples. They are illustrative inputs, not predictions.

Forward looking Bitcoin assumptions on this site are capped at 40%. Historical returns are cited separately and are not used as forward inputs.

Why CAGR Is Used

CAGR (compound annual growth rate) converts a start value, end value and time period into one average yearly rate. It is useful because it makes scenarios comparable across different assets and horizons.

It is dangerous because it smooths out the path. A 30% CAGR over ten years does not mean the asset rose 30% every year. It means the average was 30%, which could include large drawdowns and sharp recoveries that the number itself does not show.

Historical Data Is Context, Not an Assumption

Bitcoin's historical CAGR over selected periods can be calculated from public price data. For example, January 2015 to December 2024 produces an average annual return of roughly 85%. That figure describes what happened. It does not make it a forward assumption.

Past performance does not predict future results. Bitcoin has been highly volatile and could decline significantly. Historical data is included here for context only.

Source: public exchange and aggregator price data. Method: start price, end price, CAGR over the stated period. Last checked July 2026.

Why Future Scenarios Use Lower Rates Than History

The middle Bitcoin scenario uses 30% as an illustrative forward assumption. That is much lower than Bitcoin's historical return over recent decades, but future returns are unknowable.

We use lower forward assumptions than history because adoption may slow, market size is larger, regulation can change, volatility can persist and compounding at historical rates becomes harder as the asset matures. A lower rate is a modelling choice for sensitivity testing, not a claim that 30% is likely or safe.

Unified Scenario Model (App + Web)

The Scenario Calculator and the Bitcoin Super app use the same engine. The website accepts manual inputs; the app auto-fills balance and profile ages from your watch-only SMSF vault.

Pre-retirement

Both tracks start from the same balance. Each year: apply CAGR, then add the same capped annual contribution to both tracks. Presets: Lower 8/20, Middle 10/30, Higher 12/40 (% p.a. Managed Superfund / Bitcoin Super).

Year n balance = (year n−1 balance × (1 + CAGR)) + annual contribution

Post-retirement (when profile ages set)

At retirement, each track splits at the projected Transfer Balance Cap (TBC). Amount within TBC enters the pension pool; excess stays in accumulation. Each post-retirement year applies minimum ATO pension drawdowns to the pension pool opening balance, then compounds both pools at the track CAGR until plan-through age.

• TBC base: $2.1 million from 1 July 2026
• TBC indexation: +$100,000 per year (illustrative forward projection)
• Drawdown rates: ATO minimum pension rates by age (4% under 65, 5% at 65–74, stepping up to 14% at 95+)

Track labels: Managed Superfund (green dashed on charts) and Bitcoin Super (orange solid).

Calculator Methodology

The Scenario Calculator compares two smooth growth paths on Managed Superfund and Bitcoin Super tracks from the same starting value and horizon:

• Managed Superfund: a single CAGR applied with optional annual contributions.
• Bitcoin Super: a single CAGR applied to the same starting balance and contributions.
• Scenario gap: the difference between the two projected outcomes under the selected assumptions.

Final value = starting value × (1 + assumed growth rate)^years (+ contributions each year when entered)

The calculator assumes smooth annual compounding. Real markets do not compound smoothly. When profile ages are entered, post-retirement TBC split and minimum drawdowns apply as described above. The scenario gap is an output of the inputs you choose, not a recommendation to allocate to either path.

What the Model Excludes

Scenario tools model smooth compounding, optional contributions and illustrative post-retirement drawdowns. The following are excluded everywhere — real outcomes will differ materially when these factors apply.

Now modelled in scenario tools

Still excluded everywhere

How to Interpret the Output

A large scenario gap does not mean the higher growth assumption will happen. It means the outcome is sensitive to time horizon and growth assumptions.

Use the output to ask better questions, not to conclude the decision is obvious. Change the assumptions, shorten or lengthen the horizon and note how quickly the gap moves. That sensitivity is the point of the tool.

If a gap only appears attractive under aggressive assumptions and long horizons, that is useful information. It is not a signal to act without separate work on tax, fees, custody, volatility tolerance and personal circumstances.

Regulatory and Cost Assumptions

Where regulatory figures appear on BitcoinSuper, they are indicative reference points for context. They are not modelled in the calculator unless explicitly stated.

Current as at July 2026. Verify before relying on them.

Authoritative detail: How Super Actually Works and ATO rules reference.

Cost categories not modelled in scenarios

Real SMSF and Bitcoin outcomes depend on costs that vary by provider, structure and behaviour. The calculator does not deduct these. Common categories include:

What This Page Cannot Tell You

This page documents methodology. It does not replace professional advice tailored to your circumstances.

• Whether an SMSF is suitable for you
• Whether Bitcoin is suitable for you
• What allocation to use
• What tax outcome applies to you
• What provider to choose
• Whether you can tolerate volatility
• Whether your custody plan is adequate

BitcoinSuper is not an Australian Financial Services Licence holder. Before acting, consult appropriately qualified professionals: licensed advisers, tax accountants, SMSF administrators and legal practitioners as needed.

Data Sources and Update Policy

Data sources

• Bitcoin prices: public exchange and aggregator data for historical CAGR context
• Managed super context: publicly available fund disclosures and APRA data where cited on other pages
• Regulatory figures: ATO guidelines and government publications, cross referenced on ATO rules reference

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