The Numbers We Use (And Why)

This section explains the different growth rates we use across BitcoinSuper and when we use each one. Every page on this site follows these same numbers.

Usage rules:

• Historical (85%): This is what actually happened from 2015-2024. We only mention this when talking about the past. We never use this number for future predictions.
• Conservative (30%): This is our cautious estimate for long-term planning. It's much lower than Bitcoin's historical performance, which gives us a safety buffer.
• Exploratory (40%): This is the highest number we'll use for "what if" scenarios. It's not a prediction—just a way to explore best-case possibilities. We never use numbers higher than 40%.

Important: All forward-looking CAGR references across BitcoinSuper are capped at 40% maximum. Any references to 50% or 85% in forward-looking contexts are errors and should be corrected.

Why CAGR is used

We use CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) because it takes messy, up-and-down returns and turns them into one simple number: the average yearly growth rate.

Here's how it works: CAGR figures out what the average yearly return would be if your investment grew at a steady pace. This lets us compare different investments over the same time period, even if one was more volatile than the other.

Formula: CAGR = (Ending Value / Beginning Value)^(1 / Number of Years) - 1

Important limitation: CAGR doesn't show you the wild swings. A 30% CAGR over 10 years doesn't mean Bitcoin went up 30% every single year. It means the average was 30%, but that could include years where it dropped 50% and years where it jumped 150%. The ride is much bumpier than the number suggests.

Why 30% is conservative for Bitcoin modelling

When we say 30% is "conservative," we mean it's much lower than what Bitcoin actually delivered in the past. Bitcoin's real performance over the last 10 years averaged about 85% per year. So 30% is our way of being cautious.

What actually happened: From 2015 to 2024, Bitcoin's average yearly return was about 85%. This isn't a guess—it's what the numbers show when you look at the actual price data.

Why we call 30% "conservative":

• It's 65% lower than what actually happened (85% vs 30%)
• It assumes Bitcoin won't perform as well as it matures
• It leaves room for things that could slow growth: new regulations, slower adoption, or market saturation
• It gives us a safety margin so we're not being overly optimistic

Important: "Conservative" here means "lower than the past," not "safe." Bitcoin is still extremely volatile even with a 30% average. That 30% could include years where it crashes 70% and years where it surges 200%. Don't confuse "conservative estimate" with "low risk."

This 30% figure is used in long-term scenario modelling (e.g., in the Sovereign Retirement Thesis). Calculator defaults use different figures (10% conservative, 20% base, 35% optimistic) to allow users to explore a range of scenarios.

Why 85% is historical fact (not an assumption)

Bitcoin's 85% average yearly return from 2015-2024 is a fact, not a guess. We calculated it from actual price data. This tells us what happened, not what will happen.

How we calculated it:

• Time period: January 2015 to December 2024 (10 years)
• Data: Bitcoin prices from public exchanges and price aggregators
• Method: We took the price at the start and the price at the end, then calculated what the average yearly return would have been. (The formula is: CAGR = (End Price / Start Price)^(1/10) - 1, but you don't need to know that to understand the result.)

In plain English: If you'd put $100,000 into Bitcoin on January 1, 2015 and held it until December 31, 2024, you'd have about $6,950,000. That's an 85% average yearly return.

Critical disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin's 85% historical CAGR is no guarantee of future performance. The asset is highly volatile and could decline significantly or fail entirely.

Calculator methodology

Our calculator shows how money grows when you assume a steady return year after year. It's a simple tool to help you understand compounding—how growth builds on growth.

Default scenarios

How it works: The calculator uses a simple formula: Final Value = Starting Amount × (1 + Growth Rate)^Number of Years. You don't need to know the formula—just know that it assumes steady growth year after year.

What the calculator does not model

• Taxes: It doesn't account for any taxes—not contributions tax, capital gains tax, or the tax-free pension phase
• Fees: It ignores all fees—no SMSF setup costs, administration fees, audit fees, or management fees
• Contributions: It assumes you put in money once and leave it—no ongoing contributions
• Drawdowns: It doesn't model taking money out—no pension phase withdrawals or minimum drawdown requirements
• Volatility: It doesn't show the ups and downs—no sequence of returns risk, drawdowns, or recovery periods
• Inflation: It doesn't adjust for inflation—no accounting for how your money buys less over time
• Tax offsets: It doesn't include tax benefits like franking credits or dividend imputation

What We Don't Include (And Why It Matters)

Our models leave out a lot of things that affect real outcomes. We're being upfront about this so you understand what the numbers do and don't show.

Taxes we don't include

• Contributions tax (15% in SMSF accumulation phase)
• Capital gains tax (10% in SMSF accumulation, 0% in pension phase)
• CGT discount (1/3 discount after 12 months holding)
• Division 296 tax (for balances above $3 million threshold)
• Personal tax rates (for comparison scenarios)
• Tax deductions (SMSF setup costs, administration fees)

Costs we don't include

• SMSF setup costs ($2,000-$4,000 DIY, <$1,500 professional)
• Ongoing SMSF administration ($3,000-$6,000/year DIY, ~$1,500/year professional)
• Annual audit fees (included in professional administration)
• ATO supervisory levy (~$500/year)
• ASIC fees (for corporate trustee, ~$60/year)
• Exchange trading fees (for Bitcoin purchases)
• Hardware wallet costs (one-time, ~$100-$200)

Real-world complications we don't include

• Volatility and sequence of returns risk
• Drawdown periods and recovery times
• Liquidity constraints (forced selling at bad times)
• Custody errors or key loss (permanent loss risk)
• Regulatory changes (tax treatment, SMSF rules, Bitcoin regulation)
• Inflation (purchasing power erosion over decades)
• Currency fluctuations (AUD/BTC exchange rate volatility)

Why this is not advice

BitcoinSuper gives you information and tools to help you think through decisions. This is not personal financial advice tailored to your situation.

• Not personalized: Our models don't know anything about you—your situation, how much risk you can handle, your timeline, or your goals
• No recommendations: We don't tell you what to invest in, how to allocate your money, or what strategy to use
• No AFSL: BitcoinSuper is not an Australian Financial Services Licence holder
• Educational only: Information is provided for educational purposes to help you understand structure and trade-offs
• You decide: All decisions about SMSF structure, asset allocation, and retirement planning are yours alone

When to seek advice: Before making decisions about SMSF setup, asset allocation, or retirement planning, consult appropriately qualified professionals:

• Licensed financial advisers (for investment strategy and retirement planning)
• Tax accountants (for SMSF tax implications and compliance)
• SMSF administrators (for setup, compliance, and ongoing administration)
• Legal professionals (for trust deed, estate planning, and regulatory compliance)

Historical data sources

We get all our historical data from public sources. We note when we last checked each source so you can verify it yourself.

Bitcoin price data

• Bitcoin prices (2015-2024): We use data from public exchanges and price tracking websites
• How we calculated the 85%: We took the price at the start (January 2015) and the price at the end (December 2024) and calculated the average yearly return
• Last verified: January 2026

Australian superannuation fund data

• Top 6 Australian super funds (10-year CAGR): Fund annual reports and APRA data
• Fund performance data: Publicly available fund disclosures and regulatory filings
• Last verified: October 2025

Regulatory and policy data

• Transfer Balance Cap: $2M (2025-26 financial year, effective 1 July 2025) — ATO guidelines
• Contribution caps: $30,000 concessional, $120,000 non-concessional (2025-26) — ATO guidelines
• Division 296: Policy changes as of October 2025 — Government announcements and Treasury documents
• Last verified: January 2026

Note: Regulatory and policy data changes over time. This page is updated when significant changes occur. See Change Log below for update history.

Limitations and disclaimers

It's important to understand what our models can and can't tell you.

Modelling limitations

• Simplified assumptions: Real life is complicated. Our simple "steady growth" models miss a lot of what actually happens
• No volatility modeling: CAGR smooths out the ups and downs, but it doesn't show you what happens when markets crash right when you need to withdraw money, or how long it takes to recover from big drops
• No tax modeling: Tax implications significantly affect real outcomes but are not included in calculator
• No cost modeling: Setup and ongoing costs reduce returns but are not factored into projections
• Historical bias: Past performance data may not predict future results, especially for volatile assets like Bitcoin

Data limitations

• Historical data only: All performance data is historical and does not predict future results
• Time period dependent: 10-year CAGR (2015-2024) may not represent longer-term trends
• Fund data: Super fund performance varies significantly by fund, asset allocation, and time period
• Regulatory changes: Policy data is current as of publication date but may change

Change Log

This section tracks every change we make to our assumptions, methods, or data. We keep this updated so you can see what changed and when—like a reference manual, not a blog.

Update policy: This page is updated when:

• Regulatory changes occur (e.g., transfer balance cap indexation, contribution cap changes)
• Significant data refreshes are required (e.g., new 10-year performance periods)
• Methodology changes are made (e.g., calculator algorithm updates)
• New assumptions are introduced or existing assumptions are revised