Scenario Calculator
Model assumptions. Do not outsource judgement.
Same scenario model as the Bitcoin Super app: smooth CAGR on Managed Superfund and Bitcoin Super tracks, optional annual contributions, and post retirement Transfer Balance Cap (TBC) modelling when you enter profile ages.
Enter inputs manually here. The app fills balance and ages from your watch-only SMSF vault. Not a prediction, recommendation, or retirement plan.
Educational information only. Not financial, tax, legal, SMSF administration or custody services.
What changes under different assumptions?
10 years · illustrative only
Compare Managed Superfund and Bitcoin Super under shared Australian SMSF rules. Start with presets, then open Advanced to stress test inflation and optional spending coverage. Assumptions and methodology
Presets match the Bitcoin Super app. Illustrative only, not forecasts.
Used for real (today dollars) balances and inflation adjusted spending need.
Age Pension, defined benefit, or other non super income in today dollars. Not advice on eligibility.
Pre retirement results
No account required. Calculator inputs are processed in your browser and are not sent to a server by this tool.
Same scenarios, live from your SMSF vault
The Bitcoin Super iPhone app uses this same scenario model on your watch-only vault balance. No manual starting amount required.
- Watch-only balance in BTC and AUD from your SMSF vault
- Australian financial year audit statements with daily AUD valuations
- Dashboard, Chart, Retirement, Statements and Learn tabs
- Shares vault configuration with TBA Vault Watcher and Vault Health on the same iPhone
App Store: Australia · New Zealand only
Assumptions and methodology · TBA Vault Apps · TBA Vault Apps: Bitcoin Super · Request a callback
How to read the result
A large scenario gap does not mean the higher growth assumption will happen. It means the decision is highly sensitive to time horizon and assumed growth rate.
The larger the allocation and the longer the time horizon, the more important custody and execution become.
Before moving retirement capital, the more important questions are:
- Can you tolerate the volatility?
- Can the SMSF hold the asset properly?
- Can the Bitcoin be withdrawn from the exchange?
- How will custody, recovery and audit evidence work?
- What happens if the trustee is unavailable?
Contributions, minimum pension drawdowns, inflation for real dollars and optional spending coverage are modelled when entered. Tax, fees, volatility path, sequencing risk, custody costs, audit costs, regulatory changes and behavioural errors remain excluded.
Calculator questions
Short answers for reading the tool. Full methodology sits on Assumptions.
What does the scenario gap mean?
The scenario gap is the difference between the two smooth CAGR paths under the inputs you chose. A large gap means the outcome is sensitive to growth and time assumptions. It is not a forecast that the higher path will occur.
Why is smooth CAGR the wrong tool for risk?
Smooth compounding hides drawdowns, sequence of returns and behavioural error. Use the gap to test sensitivity, then read Why retirement models are wrong before treating any path as a plan.
What does the Transfer Balance Cap do here?
When profile ages are on, each track splits at an indicative TBC at retirement. Amount within the cap enters the pension pool with ATO minimum drawdowns. Excess stays in accumulation. Details and constants are on Assumptions.
Why is custody the next question?
Balances on a chart do not secure bitcoin. BitcoinSuper explains the SMSF pathway. The Bitcoin Adviser implements Collaborative Security: multisig, devices, key agency, operational evidence and continuity support. Request a callback when you are ready to map structure and custody.
The calculator does not answer the custody question.
A spreadsheet cannot secure Bitcoin. If you are considering Bitcoin in an SMSF, map the provider stack, custody model and execution sequence before moving funds.
Next steps
Review assumptions and methodology →
Review the Risk Register →
Understand Bitcoin SMSF custody →